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BlueDragon: Article

Java, .NET, SOA, Web Services, Linux, XML, Open Source and AJAX Predictions for 2006

SYS-CON Media's Annual Roundup of i-Technology Predictions from Around the Web

YAKOV FAIN
Java 5.1, AJAX, "CSMB," Outsourcing, Yahoo!

  1. Enterprises will finally start using Java 5. The sooner the 5.1 version is released the better.
  2. AJAX hype will calm down. AJAX is an interesting technology and will become one of many techniques used in Web application development. Nothing more.
  3. Fat clients will be more widely used in distributed enterprise applications. Java still has a chance to be used in this area, if someone will create an IDE with an easy-to-use and powerful Swing GUI designer. JDeveloper and NetBeans are leading here. Adobe (formerly Macromedia) tools will become more and more popular.
  4. Smart development managers will start creating mixed open source/commercial environments. For example, you can use open source J2EE servers in Dev and QA and their commercial counterparts in Prod and Contingency environments. The same is applicable to DBMS, messaging, et al. Some open source vendors are already moving in this direction by creating products that are 100% compatible with particular commercial tools.
  5. A new software architecture for small and mid-size businesses should arise. IMHO a good candidate is what I call "Client/Server Message Bus" (CSMB): a set of client/server applications can talk to each other using open source messaging and an enterprise service bus. Note: Client/server applications can have more than two tiers, e.g., RMI client, RMI Server and DBMS.
  6. Programming will become the trade of the younger generation. Middle-age programmers will be leaving the coding arena and moving to business analysis and management. You can't beat a 25-year-old Indian programmer who's ready to join any project tomorrow (in any place on Earth), sharing a room in so-called guest apartment. The code quality of such a programmer may not be as good as was expected by the employer, but this will be a little secret for some time, and smart kids will have enough time to learn how to program on the job.
  7. A number of CIOs will come out of the closet and publicly admit that the real cost of outsourced projects is high, because for every two young Indian programmers, you need a local business analyst who will write super-detailed functional specifications and validate their work. But outsourcing is here to stay (at least in the U.S.) and not because overseas programmers charge less, but because just finding local programmers will become a difficult task.
  8. Yahoo! will come up with some new innovative Web products that will be able to compete with Google's software. If not Yahoo!, who else?
  9. By the end of the year the broadband Internet will give DSL and cable Internet a run for its money. The wireless companies just need to cut the prices of their broadband service, and the masses will start leaving their "traditional" ISPs.
  10. Java use will steadily increase despite the fact that various replacements are being offered. Java is more than an excellent object-oriented language enriched by tons of productivity libraries (networking, multi-threading, security, etc.). It's a mature and proven platform for development of all kinds of applications for all kinds of hardware. Java in programming plays the same role as English in the real world: no one says that the Italian language will replace English any time soon; on the other hand, songs in Italian sound great.
Erik C. Thauvin , as befits the author of Erik's Linkblog and owner of Thauvin.net, ranged far and wide in his predictions. They started with combative opinions on RoR and Web 2.0.

ERIK C. THAUVIN
RoR, Web2.0, Open Source Java, IE 7, Google, Yahoo!, spam, VoIP, and WiFi

  1. Ruby (on Rails) and such will still be touted as taking over Java, but in reality will be as insignificant as they are today.
  2. Web 2.0 will solidify its status as a powerful buzzword. A lot of fluff, very little stuff.
  3. Sun will once again dangle the open source carrot as Mustang gets closer to its release date.
  4. The IE 7 rate of adoption will be phenomenal, especially compared to Firefox.
  5. Sixty percent of Google's services will still be in "beta."
  6. Yahoo! will be the first Internet portal to come up with a compelling set of mobile-based services.
  7. No spam salvation. Many will try, all will fail.
  8. VoIP and Wi-Fi will become even more synonymous.
So, let's have your own contributions: e-mail them please to 2006predictions@sys-con.com.

Acknowledgments
Parts of this article were informed by discussions with SYS-CON editors, writers and columnists, including Sean Rhody, Israel Hilerio, Bill Ray, Mark Hinkle, Rob Gonda, and Dion Hinchliffe.

More Stories By Jeremy Geelan

Jeremy Geelan is Chairman & CEO of the 21st Century Internet Group, Inc. and an Executive Academy Member of the International Academy of Digital Arts & Sciences. Formerly he was President & COO at Cloud Expo, Inc. and Conference Chair of the worldwide Cloud Expo series. He appears regularly at conferences and trade shows, speaking to technology audiences across six continents. You can follow him on twitter: @jg21.

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